Models
Paper backtest. Not live unless marked otherwise. 窗口约 2025-01 至 2026-08。月收益连乘得到全年与 2025 至今。
Model evolution curve
Early weak versions, intermediate experiments, and official versions are placed on one timeline. The vertical axis uses a log scale of equity multiple since 2025 so later high-return versions do not flatten the earlier ones.
live-harden-v22
早期可交易基线
实盘基线：harden 第 1 + v2.2，lock 3%，无 roll、无 lw_hold。作为后续 v33/v35/v36 演进的可交易起点。
v33
机制核 / 对照
v30 选股 + lock 4% + T+1 下影 hold + lock 日隔夜腿滚到 T+2 开。杠杆更少，作为对照核。
v35-light
推荐跟踪
选股与执行核同 v33，加上弱开 5/95、基因仓 fuse、lock 日再加仓 15%。纸面可跟踪的默认档。
v36
纸面峰值（不推荐跟踪）
因果满仓后再叠 gene / few / lock 加仓。收益更高也更杠杆，不当「最好可跟踪」模型。
v37
gap-cut 强化版
在 v36 基础上加入弱开缺口切断与更激进的因子倍数。收益更高，但窗口说明里明确标注 2024 仅作参考对照。
v38
OOS bridge / 新一代约束版
锁窗收益不差，但引入 2024 control gate 作为约束，目的是让高收益不过度依赖单一窗口。前瞻样本仍短。
| 版本 | 2025 | 2026 YTD | Since 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| live-harden-v22 早期可交易基线 | +31.00% | +79.70% | +135% |
| v33 机制核 / 对照 | +556% | +379% | +3041% |
| v35-light 推荐跟踪 | +577% | +410% | +3351% |
| v36 纸面峰值（不推荐跟踪） | +653% | +1324% | +10621% |
| v37 gap-cut 强化版 | +585% | +2274% | +16174% |
| v38 OOS bridge / 新一代约束版 | +204% | +169% | +718% |
All versions
Older weak versions, replaced variants, and still-experimental branches are listed together for side-by-side comparison.
| Version | Role | Since 2025 | 2025 | 2026 YTD | H2 | 2026-07 | 2026-08 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
live-harden-v22 official | 早期可交易基线 | +135% | +31.00% | +79.70% | +50.99% | -1.18% | - | active |
v22+ ladder | v2.2 + 下影跳过 + gene 低分位 | +303% | +74.80% | +123% | +68.40% | +0.40% | +3.30% | active |
v23 ladder | 75/25 分拆实验 | +329% | - | +183% | +47.10% | +29.60% | +3.70% | experimental |
v24 ladder | 无人气改选第2名 | +454% | - | +183% | +47.40% | +29.60% | - | experimental |
v25 ladder | 指数过滤后改第2名 | +771% | - | +183% | +63.40% | +29.60% | - | experimental |
v26 ladder | 第2名需 gene20 | +850% | +236% | +186% | +83.90% | +27.10% | -1.40% | active |
v27 ladder | 加 skipdn3 | +1441% | +406% | +212% | +177% | +32.10% | -2.50% | active |
v28 ladder | 再加 skipclimax | +1465% | +406% | +217% | +177% | +32.10% | -2.50% | active |
v29 ladder | Top5 gene walk | +2048% | +483% | +278% | +219% | +32.10% | -2.50% | active |
v30 ladder | impaired next gene top5 | +2321% | +483% | +312% | +219% | +32.10% | +0.85% | active |
v31 ladder | lock 4% | +2739% | +524% | +351% | +230% | +32.10% | +0.85% | active |
v32 ladder | T+1 下影 hold | +2955% | +552% | +345% | +239% | +32.10% | +5.20% | active |
v33* ladder | roll_lock | +3041% | +556% | +355% | +241% | +32.80% | +5.20% | active |
v34 ladder | ov veto 实验 | +3158% | - | +352% | +246% | +34.50% | +8.10% | experimental |
v33 official | 机制核 / 对照 | +3041% | +556% | +379% | - | - | - | active |
v35-light official | 推荐跟踪 | +3351% | +577% | +410% | - | - | - | recommended |
v36 official | 纸面峰值（不推荐跟踪） | +10621% | +653% | +1324% | - | - | - | active |
v37 official | gap-cut 强化版 | +16174% | +585% | +2274% | - | - | - | active |
v38 official | OOS bridge / 新一代约束版 | +718% | +204% | +169% | - | - | - | active |